The American economy is set to undergo massive changes under the new presidential administration. Donald Trump and his staff have proposed an economic plan that promises to “put America first,” meaning prioritizing the development of American production, manufacturing and exports, over cheaper imports and industry from abroad. His main economic weapon of choice? Tariffs. Trump signed executive orders within his first week in office that placed a 25 percent tax on both Mexican and Canadian goods (our second and third largest import partners, respectively), and a 10 percent tariff on all Chinese goods (our largest import partner). Not only are these planned taxes directly contradictory to his anti-inflationary campaign promises, but they will also most heavily harm America’s youth and middle class. Despite hopes of reviving American industry and protecting America’s financial priorities, Trump’s proposed tariffs and executive orders threaten to choke the youth out of a stable future through drastically increased inflation and relative costs of common goods. 

For any of those unaware, a tariff is essentially a tax on goods imported from a foreign country. According to general economic theory, that duty is not paid by the exporter of the goods from the foreign country, but rather by the domestic corporation importing said goods. This means that the bulk of whatever the tax is falls directly on the domestic consumer. It is important to note the demographic that most often gets swept up in these rather xenophobic economic principles. It is important to note that young men in general are typically more convinced by a pro-tariff argument. Specifically, 49 percent of men under 30 voted for Trump in this election, as opposed to only 38 percent of women. Young men are typically the demographic swayed most easily by patriotic promises of an America-centric economy. They make up the bulk of the overall workforce, and unlike women in recent elections, have not had the threat of reproductive rights being stripped from them. Thus, their votes often lie directly with the party and candidate that they view most directly supports an American economy of limitless growth and domestic fortitude. Such promises are often made by both parties, but in recent years, they have been associated with the Trump campaign. Unfortunately for even the most selfish of young male voters, this recent Republican promise cannot possibly come to fruition if Trump continues with his planned route of tariffs and deportations. 

While it is impossible to calculate the exact expected inflation from such far-reaching tariffs as those currently underway, rough estimates can give a good indication of the breadth of the problem the nation will be facing. Outside of housing (which would also be , the largest expenses for the average American household are transportation, utilities and food. All three of these categories will be dramatically impacted by the new tariffs. Chinese manufacturers are the largest suppliers of the technological components of cars, which make up a large portion of the vehicle’s price. A flat 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods could see a massive increase in the average price of an automobile. The US imports over 99 percent of its natural gas from Canada. Consequently, a tariff on imported gas will be the direct catalyst to rapidly rising fuel and energy prices for American consumers. (Admittedly, the tariff on imported Canadian gas is only 10 percent as opposed to the 25 percent on the rest of the country’s goods, but the effect remains nonetheless.) As for food, a large percentage of American produce such as staple grains and beans find their origin in Mexico, and a 25 percent tariff on imported food could exacerbate preexisting food shortages and insecurity for millions of Americans. 

In addition to the juvenile calculations that demonstrate the enormity of the issue at hand, professional economists are also firmly on the anti-tariff side of the board. A large portion of Trump’s claims about the benefits of tariffs are justified by the belief that they will bring the US back to the golden ages of industry and production that it enjoyed in the late 1940s and 1950s. However, as a study from NielsenIQ notes, this strategy is incredibly outside of the norm for any country: “Ever since World War II, the key development in trade policy has been the very gradual but persistent reduction in trade barriers, interrupted only by brief spats among major trading partners.” 

The authors continued by stating that “the largest economy in the world is slated to start imposing large tariffs on its most important trading partners, a policy decision that will almost certainly lead to reprisals and may drive a surge in trade protectionism around the world.” Even if by some miracle the desire for a new age of American manufacturing is realized, our ability to export will still decrease substantially due to reflective trade regulations from our foreign partners. 

But what can we do to help resolve this seemingly insurmountable issue in American politics? Realistically, not much right now. As much as our middle school selves would have liked to delude themselves, no amount of letters to members of Congress or local litigation will solve these national issues. The honest and time-tested answer to creating change is to remain vigilant. Vigilant in your self-education. Vigilant in your moral considerations before taking to the voting booths. Vigilant in your considerations of the future before you make economic decisions for the present. 

And this serves to be exceptionally relevant for graduating seniors in the Redwood community. While I could bore you with a litany of statistics to show that Marin is wealthy, I do believe that most of us recognize the wealth of our local area. And this final message is directed at the particularly well-off within our community. That degree of wealth can lead us to often feel a sense of subconscious invulnerability to the lunacy that surrounds the Marin bubble. Many of us might be tempted to think, “Maybe the economy is in a downward spiral. That sucks, at least I have ski week to look forward to.” Outside of the obvious moral shortcomings this mindset forms, this also proves to be a dangerous thought process when we are the ones at the plate, batting at success within the American workforce. Once we leave the seemingly endless coffers of our parents, we will be forced to realize the impact that presidential decisions make on our daily lives. That is why we must stay informed and care now — because we must be able to envision our spot in the American future as those being impacted by the decisions made today.