Every March, college basketball fans have the opportunity to fill out a free bracket with dreams of taking home a $1 billion prize awarded to the first perfect bracket ever. The odds of this happening are 1 in 9.22 quintillion. To put that into perspective, you would have a better chance of picking out one single grain of sand on Earth than filling out a perfect bracket, yet millions of brackets are filled out every year only to fail.
Whether you filled out a bracket in your family pool or paid a sum to compete in an expert tournament, it’s important that you didn’t pick teams based on the best logo or funniest mascot. Below, we share our top picks for a winning bracket.
For our bracket, we used websites like March Madness Live or the ESPN Tournament Challenge to review a set of metrics for each team before deciding on a matchup. Experts suggest focusing on offensive efficiency when determining first-round success, so we made sure to look at points per game, 3-pointers per game and free throws per game. However, with the transfer portal, name, image and likeness reshaping mid-major rosters, it has become more difficult for No. 13-16 seeds to win games and make deep runs.
Bark stuck with the higher seeds early; it is very unlikely that any No. 1 or No. 2 seed loses in the first round, and at most one No. 3 seed will lose.
Moving beyond the top seed matchups, when searching for upsets from No. 12-14 seeds, we did not pick teams with a high rank of kill shots against and a low rank of kill shots for. (Kill shots refer to the number of times teams score 10 points without the opposing team scoring a single point. It suggests teams that are streaky and play with a high tempo). Teams like Iowa, Iowa State and Kansas allow a high number of kill shots against them.
Another metric that highlights potential vulnerability in the early rounds is a team’s tempo ranking. A slower tempo usually means fewer possessions per game and fewer shot attempts. Houston and Virginia both play at a slow pace. Historically, No. 12 seeds beat No. 5 seeds 37 percent of the time, so it’s important to have one or two No. 12 seeds advancing to the round of thirty-two. No.13 seeds beat No. 4 seeds 21 percent of the time, so pick at most one No. 13 seed to advance.
Round of 64 upsets:
East Region:
No. 11. South Florida over No. 6. Louisville
The University of South Florida (USF) is 14-1 in their last 15 games and are the current American Athletic Conference champions. Louisville, on the other hand, has lost four of its last eight, including losses to Clemson, Miami, Southern Methodist University and the University of North Carolina. Look for USF’s strong defense to slow Louisville’s fast pace.
South Region:
No. 12. McNeese over No. 5. Vanderbilt
The No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchup in every region could go either way. Vanderbilt has struggled against lackadaisical Southeastern Conference (SEC) play, and McNeese ranks in the top 10 nationally in KenPom offensive efficiency among mid-majors. Look for a high-scoring game with strong performances from McNeese’s guards.
West Region:
No. 11. Texas/North Carolina State over No. 6. Brigham Young University (BYU)
While BYU has shown an ability to play with the best of the BIG 12, in losses, their offense is stagnant, and they tend to take early and mediocre shots due to their inexperience. We predict Texas will take care of the first four matchups and have a field day on the boards and be able to force a grind-it-out game with BYU.
No. 10. Missouri over No. 7. Miami (FL)
With Miami (FL) coming off a trouncing 84-62 loss to Virginia, and holding only two ranked wins this year, the odds do not appear to be in their favor. To make matters worse for the Miami Canes, this first-round matchup is being played in St. Louis, just a short distance from Missouri’s campus. With many Tigers’ fans expected to be in attendance, the environment is likely to resemble that of a home game and will sway the result in Missouri’s favor.
Midwest Region:
No. 9. Saint Louis over No. 8. Georgia
The Saint Louis Billikens enter the tournament with a roster built for March success, mixing experienced transfers from power conference programs with impressive size. Several rotation players for the Billikens have competed at the highest level before, making the team one of the deepest in the nation. Additionally, most of these rotational players stand at least 6-foot-5, which has led the team to nationally ranked rebounding success throughout the season. If Saint Louis is able to control the boards and use its experience, the 9 seed Billikens could grind out an upset win to kick off the tournament.
No. 10. Santa Clara over No. 7. Kentucky
After beating Saint Mary’s to play in the West Coast Conference championship, Santa Clara has been riding high on their quick offensive attacks, with four lethal 3-point shooters on the court at all times. We don’t believe in Kentucky’s resume and inexperience, and the 3-point volatility from Santa Clara plays in March Madness.
Round of 32 upsets:
East Region:
No. 7. University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) over No. 2. University of Connecticut
If leading senior scorer Tyler Bilodeau is labeled healthy for this week, UCLA is a team to watch this March. The team holds top 25 wins against Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan State and Iowa. While they did struggle on the road this season, guard Donovan Dent is playing at an elite level, with recent assist-to-turnover numbers through the roof. The Bruins are peaking at the right time, and their recent consistent play gives them the chance to beat anyone.
West Region:
No. 5. Wisconsin over No. 4. Arkansas
Wisconsin has undoubtedly had one of the toughest schedules in the country this year, making them battle-tested ahead of the dance. The Badgers have picked up some impressive wins this year over No. 3 Michigan, No. 9 Illinois (2x), No. 10 Michigan St. and No. 15 Purdue, showing they can compete with the best. Arkansas being the SEC champions means much less this year as the conference holds one top 10 team (Florida), who just lost by 17 points to SEC runner-up Vanderbilt. Wisconsin’s quality experience in high-level matchups should be enough to give them an edge in a highly competitive second-round matchup.
Sweet 16 upsets:
No. 7. UCLA over No. 3. Michigan State
UCLA recently proved they can beat Michigan State, knocking off the Spartans 88-84 in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals. UCLA guard Donovan Dent led the charge with 23 points and 12 assists while the Bruins shot 55 percent from the field, knocking down 13 3-pointers. Michigan State attempted a late comeback, outscoring the Bruins 51-44 in the second half, but due to their poor first-half performance, the Spartans fell just short. If UCLA’s guards continue to control the game and create scoring opportunities as they did in that matchup, then there is no reason why the Bruins aren’t set up for yet another upset.
South:
No. 4. Nebraska over No. 1. Florida
Our first No. 1 seed to vacate, Florida, was recently smacked by Vanderbilt (91-74) in the SEC championship and has lost games to Auburn, Missouri, UConn, Texas Christian University and Arizona. Nebraska, on the other hand, has faced the gauntlet in the BIG 10 and is getting healthy at the right time. Look for a low-scoring mismatch and the Cornhuskers to slow down the pace and limit Florida’s kill shots.
Midwest:
No. 3. Virginia over No. 2. Iowa State
The 29-5 Virginia Cavaliers rank near the top 25 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency, often doing a good job at limiting opponents’ three-point success, forcing the Duke Blue Devils to shoot 32 percent from three in their last matchup. The Cavaliers also rely on depth with nine different players averaging at least 16 minutes per game, helping them stay fresh towards the end of tight matchups. If Virginia can continue their strong defense, the high-scoring Cyclones’ offense will be forced into tougher shots and poor possessions that will see the Cavaliers punch their ticket to the Elite Eight.
Our Final Four:
Duke vs Illinois
Purdue vs Michigan
Our Championship and Winner:
Duke over Michigan 74-63
