Aaron and Bennett’s Booms and Busts: Week 13

November 28, 2019

Aaron and Bennett’s Booms and Busts is an ongoing Fantasy Football Column. Our predictions are to help answer any of your difficult questions regarding who to start or sit each week.

 

Week 12 Prediction Results

Booms

Steelers, D/ST Predicted: 18 & Actual:13

Tevin Coleman, RB – Predicted: 20.6 & Actual: 12.9

D.K. Metcalf, WR – Predicted: 18.4 & Actual: 6.5

Busts

Nyheim Hines, RB – Predicted: 12.1 & Actual: 8.1

Davante Adams, WR – Predicted: 10.2 & Actual: 19.3

Tom Brady, QB – Predicted: 15.4 & Actual: 11.3

 

Booms

Le’Veon Bell (RB) New York Jets (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)

Facing the winless Bengals, a team that has struggled offensively and defensively this year, Bell arguably has his most favorable

Courtesy of the National Football League
Bell has averaged 4.63 receptions per game this season, a major advantage in PPR scoring format leagues.

matchup of the year. The Bengals have allowed 166.4 rushing yards per game this season, the worst in the National Football League (NFL), and additionally have given up the 27th most fantasy points to running backs (RBs). When Chris Carson faced the Bengals, he produced 24 fantasy points. Similarly, Leonard Fournette gained 17.5 points in week 7 and Josh Jacobs had 15.9 in week 11. Considering Bell’s similarities in both number of carries and fantasy points to Carson, Fournette and Jacobs expect Bell to have a big day. With the Jets’ offense finally rolling with Sam Darnold, Bell should see an influx in carries as the Jets will likely be on the offensive side for the majority of the game.

PPR Scoring Format Projection: 17.9 pts.

 

DJ Chark Jr. (WR) Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Chark has proven himself to be one of the most elite deep threats in the NFL this season and has established himself as a high-

Courtesy of the National Football League
In his second year as a Jacksonville Jaguar, Chark has averaged 15.3 yards per reception, highlighting his deep threat abilities.

end WR2 or even a low-end WR1. Even though Chark ranks sixth in fantasy points among wide receivers, Chark tends to be a boom or bust kind of player, which can be attributed to his deep threat capabilities. In week 13 Chark will face Tampa Bay. This team averages 290 passing yards allowed per game, the worst in the NFL, and the second most points to fantasy wideouts, so expect Chark to achieve a boom week. Since starting quarterback Nick Foles made his return in week 11, we’ve already seen Chark’s average fantasy points per game to increase by 4.03 points. Expect to see Foles and Chark connecting deep downfield throughout the game.

PPR Scoring Format Projection: 19.1 pts.

 

 

Darren Waller (TE) Oakland Raiders (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)

The Kansas City Chiefs have consistently been one of the worst defenses to the tight end position. This season, they’ve allowed

Courtesy of the National Football League
In week 12, when Waller last faced Kansas City, he accounted for 12.3 fantasy points.

the 28th most fantasy points, the second most targets and the most receptions to tight ends. In simple terms, their ability to defend tight ends is atrocious. When Waller last faced Kansas City in week two, he brought in six receptions for 63 yards, a mediocre, yet productive day for him. The Chiefs haven’t faced a tight end powerhouse such as Waller, as they’ve only played against two top-10 tight ends this year. With limited experience shutting down the passing game for tight ends and an average secondary that has allowed some of the most fantasy points to tight ends, expect to see Waller heavily involved in the passing game and potentially reach the end zone.

PPR Scoring Format Projection: 14.8 pts.

 

Busts

Devonta Freeman (RB) Atlanta Falcons (vs. New Orleans Saints)

The Atlanta Falcons stunned the New Orleans Saints in their last matchup in week 10, 26-9. Devonta Freeman suffered a foot

Courtesy of the National Football League
In a high stakes rematch for the Saints, look for Freeman to be smothered.

injury and had to leave the game allowing backup Brian Hill to step up. Before leaving the game Freeman was picking up momentum with 10 rushes for 38 yards. Freeman is expected to recover by Thursday, according to coach Dan Quinn. However, Freeman is an extremely risky play this week. In week 12, the Saints defense let up only 62 rushing yards to Christian McCafferey, one of the best RBs in the league this season. The Saints’ weakness lies in their defensive corners and safeties. This means the Falcons are likely going to put pressure on their weakness, taking advantage of the passing game. This will also be an attempt to try to slowly bring back Freeman in fear of him possibly reinjuring his foot. 

PPR Scoring Format Projection: 8.3 pts.

 

Deshaun Watson (QB) Houston Texans (vs. New England Patriots)

Deshaun Watson performed exceptionally well this season. He is averaging 22.1 points per game is ranked fourth in total points

Courtesy of the National Football League
Going up against a dominant Patriots defense, Watson’s outlook looks bleak.

for all QBs this season. The Houston Texans have had a relatively easy schedule, which accounts for Watson’s performance. The Texans faced the Baltimore Ravens in week 11 which ended with a loss of 7-41. The Patriots are near the same caliber as the Ravens which is not favorable for Watson. In the Patriots last matchup to the Dallas Cowboys, they held starting QB, Dak Prescott, to only 6.9 points. Prescott is having a phenomenal year but was dazed by the Patriots defense. Except for one week, the Patriots have held their opponents to less than 14 points. This should be a sign to stray away for Watson in his matchup against the powerful Patriots defense.

PPR Scoring Format Projection: 10.2 pts.

 

Adam Thielen (WR) Minnesota Vikings (vs. Seattle Seahawks)

Adam Thielen is an exceptionally risky start this week for the Vikings. Thielen has only played 16 snaps since week six due to a

Courtesy of the National Football League
Coming off of a hamstring injury, Thielen’s snaps will be limited in Sunday’s matchup.

hamstring injury. On Sunday, expect the Vikings to lower the risk of extended injury for Thielen by limiting his playing time. The Vikings are currently in second place in the NFC North division but are Wild Card favorites. As a result, it is not in the Vikings’ interest to risk Thielen on Sunday. Even with Thielen in the game, the Vikings will likely try to break down the Seahawks through starting RB Dalvin Cook. Cook has had an outstanding year, averaging 23.7 points per game. The Seahawks showed weakness in their ability to maintain the run game in their last matchup against the Eagles. Starting RB for the Eagles, Miles Sanders, averaged 5.3 yards per attempt. Looking to ease Thielen’s work load to preserve him for the playoffs, the Vikings will likely find alternative methods to dismantle the Seahawks defense.

PPR Scoring Format Projection: 8.7 pts.

 

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