Will and Declan’s Booms and Busts is a weekly fantasy football column that focuses on helping you decide who to start and sit in your lineup.We base our projections on ESPN standard scoring.

Week 4 Prediction Results;

Booms

Dalvin Cook, RB – Projected: 20.4 & Actual: 28.6

Ceedee Lamb, WR – Projected: 10.5 & Actual: 25.2

T.J. Hockenson, TE – Projected: 11.0 & Actual: 10.9

Busts

Julian Edelman, WR – Projected: 13.2 & Actual: 6.5

Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, RB – Projected: 14.2(Chubb), 14.1(Hunt) & Actual: 4.3(Chubb). 19.1(Hunt)

Terry McLaurin, WR – Projected: 13.6 & Actual: 21.8

Week 5 Predictions:

Booms 

Justin Jefferson, WR – Minnesota Vikings (vs. Seattle Seahawks)

In the past two weeks, Jefferson largely increased his role in the Vikings offense and is emerging as one of the top wide receivers in the highly talented 2020 draft class. After scoring a meager 12 combined fantasy points in Weeks 1 and 2 combined, Jefferson racked up 44.8 fantasy points in the following two weeks against the Titans and Texans. This is very promising for Jefferson fantasy owners as he seems to be taking over the role of receiver Stefon Diggs after Diggs departed during the offseason. This newfound success is mainly because of his change of alignment and route tree that occurred after Week 2. According to Next Gen Stats, Jefferson switched from playing in the slot on 85 percent of routes in Weeks 1 and 2 to playing out wide on 88 percent of routes in Week 3. This switch resulted in five receptions, 130 yards and a touchdown. In Week 5, the Vikings are facing the Seahawks defense, who have allowed an average of 24 receptions and 336 yards per game against wide receivers. The Seahawks have allowed the most points to wide receivers in fantasy, including huge games for Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones, Julian Edelman, Michael Gallup, Amari Cooper and Devante Parker. Jefferson and the Vikings offense will likely see the same success against the Seahawks’ struggling secondary. 

ESPN PPR Scoring Projection: 12.6

Our Projection: 20.6

Darius Slayton, WR – New York Giants (at Dallas Cowboys)

So far the Seahawks are the worst team in the NFL at defending wide receivers, while the Cowboys are right behind them, ranking 31st in the league against fantasy wideouts. Darius Slayton’s talent should be able to take advantage of this. Odell Beckham Jr., D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Calvin Ridley and Robert Woods have achieved consecutive high scoring games against the Cowboys’ defense in the past four weeks, leaving Darius Slayton the next in line. Slayton’s production will be increased by the absence of fellow wide receiver Sterling Shepard who was placed on Injured Reserve with a toe injury. Last week, Slayton saw the most targets (seven) of all Giants receivers and will have a great opportunity to capitalize on his target share this week against the Cowboys. 

ESPN PPR Scoring Projection: 12.7

Our Projection: 18.3

David Johnson, RB – Houston Texans (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)

David Johnson has had a mediocre year so far by fantasy standards, ranking 25th among fantasy running backs according to ESPN. However, the Jaguars’ run defense should make for a breakout game for Johnson,  as they have allowed 104.3 rushing yards per game this year and rank 27th against the run according to ESPN. Jacksonville was crushed last week by running back Joe Mixon who had 42.1 fantasy points with 151 yards on the ground and two rushing touchdowns. Gameflow will also play a large role in David Johnson’s usage this week; if the Texans, who are favored by six and a half points by BetMGM Sportsbook, have enough of a lead against Jacksonville, David Johnson will be used to take time off the clock against a penetrable run defense. The 0-4 Texans need a win this week, so look for them to be aggressive early, attacking the weak Jacksonville front four and giving David Johnson plenty of opportunities to score. 

ESPN PPR Scoring Projection: 14.9

Our Projection: 22.9

Busts

Joe Mixon, RB – Cincinnati Bengals (at Baltimore Ravens)

Joe Mixon had what will probably end up being one of the best fantasy performances of the year in Week 4 with 42.1 fantasy points against the aforementioned Jaguars run defense, but Mixon is bound for massive regression in his Week 5 matchup against the Baltimore Ravens. Aside from Week 4, Mixon had been playing inefficiently despite having at least 19 touches each game, with his second-highest scoring week in Week 2 at just 12.6 points. Additionally, the Ravens have been the 8th best defense against fantasy running backs so far and have stifled talented backs including Nick Chubb and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The Bengals will likely be in passing mode for the duration of the game if the Ravens’ high powered offense takes a lead as early as expected. This will limit Mixon’s touches as well as relegate him to a receiving role that backup running back Giovani Bernard is also heavily assigned. Joe Mixon had an amazing Week 4 which can be attributed to his matchup and with the Week 5 game against the Ravens, Mixon’s ineffectiveness from past weeks will continue.

ESPN PPR Scoring Projection: 15.4

Our Projection: 12.5

Darrell Henderson Jr., RB – Los Angeles Rams (vs. Washington Football Team)

Henderson is facing a tough matchup in Week 5, playing a Washington team that, according to ESPN, ranks 7th best at defending running backs in terms of fantasy. Although Henderson showed promise in Weeks 2 and 3, he saw a major decrease in usage last week in a close game against the Giants. Henderson saw only nine opportunities on 38 percent of snaps, compared to Malcolm Brown’s 15 opportunities on 61 percent of snaps. This is not encouraging for Henderson’s usage and is worsened by the return of rookie Cam Akers. With Cam Akers healthy in Week 1, Henderson only saw the field on five snaps with only three rushing attempts. The Rams backfield is a committee and it will stay this way until someone emerges as a clear RB1. Henderson does not seem to be that guy, as his playing time is substantially less with Brown and Akers both healthy. No one in this backfield should be considered in your starting lineup for now, especially not Henderson because he is against a strong Washington defensive front. 

ESPN PPR Scoring Projection: 10.4

Our projection: 5.6

Dionte Johnson, WR – Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)

Due to the Week 4 Titans-Steelers game being rescheduled after several Titans players tested positive for COVID-19, Johnson had an extra week to recover from his Week 3 concussion against Houston. Johnson was emerging as a top receiver on the Steelers offense before his head injury, but his production will likely slow down in Week 5. Although the Eagles have not been off to a great start, their off-season acquisition of cornerback Darius Slay has paid off immensely. According to Mike Clay of ESPN, Slay has allowed 18 catches and 168 yards and zero touchdowns on 142 coverage snaps this season. This includes containing star receivers Terry McLaurin and A.J. Green to minimal fantasy points in their respective games. Although many people would think that Slay would shadow Juju Smith-Schuster, this is inaccurate because Slay mainly covers the wideout position instead of the slot. Smith-Schuster aligns from the slot on about 85 percent of snaps, while Johnson lines up out wide on 85 percent of snaps. This tough matchup is not encouraging for Johnson’s fantasy value, leaving his upside very low this week. 

ESPN PPR Scoring Projection: 13.6

Our Projection: 9.8