The Academy Awards: a more than three-hour affair in which actors, producers, writers, and directors take the storied walk to the Oscar stage and proceed to thank a list of people that is way too long.

The inevitable music starts up, the winner tries to sneak in a few more comments, and then he or she is led offstage.  This scene repeats over and over again on the annual telecast.

Winning an Oscar, or even being nominated for one, can significantly boost a career in Hollywood.  For those with already established careers, it is their crowning achievement.

The Golden Globes, which aired on Jan. 13, are considered a leading indicator for the Oscars.  Yet due to several surprising snubs by the Academy in the Directing category (the organization behind the Oscars) this year’s Oscar winners are far from obvious.

Best Picture

Perhaps the most esteemed Oscar category, Best Picture represents the overall achievement of a film, meaning that every part of the film – including the writing, directing and acting – is of exceptional quality.  It is also the only category that all 6,000 plus members of the Academy are allowed to vote on.

In 2009, the Academy switched back to an older format, allowing for 10 pictures to be nominated rather than five.  This year the Academy nominated nine films; Amour, Life of Pi, Argo, Lincoln, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Silver Linings Playbook, Django Unchained, Zero Dark Thirty, and Les Misérables.

The Golden Globes helped focus the race down to two contenders. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association, the organization behind the Golden Globes, give an award for Best Motion Picture Drama, which Argo won, and Best Motion Picture Comedy or Musical, which Les Misérables won.  Those two films were already considered front runners, but because the Academy did not nominate Ben Affleck for Best Director for Argo this provides some evidence that the Academy may be leaning more towards Les Misérables.

Pick to win: Les Misérables.

Actor in a Leading Role

There are five nominees for this category: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln), Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook), Hugh Jackman (Les Misérables), Denzel Washington (Flight), and Joaquin Phoenix (The Master).  In the end, winning the Oscar will come down to politics.  While Joaquin Phoenix’s performance in The Master was excellent, his history of strange behavior makes his win unlikely.

The moment Lincoln hit the theaters, Daniel Day-Lewis was considered a lock for a nomination, if not a win, and with his sucess at the Golden Globes that outcome is looking more likely.

Hugh Jackman does pose a threat to Day-Lewis, as he also won a Golden Globe for lead actor in a musical.  But the critical response for his portrayal of Jean Valjean in Les Misérables has been a mix of positive and negative, not the nearly all-positive response for Day-Lewis.

Pick to win: Daniel Day-Lewis

Actress in a Leading Role

There are also five nominations for best actress: Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty), Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook), Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), Naomi Watts (The Impossible), and Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild).  Wallis is the youngest actress ever to be nominated for an Oscar at age nine and Riva is the oldest at age 85.  Due to their age and their respective movies’ lack of widespread recognition, it is unlikely they will win.

Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence both won Golden Globes and have been nominated for Oscars before, but due to the controversy surrounding Zero Dark Thirty, the academy will probably lean towards Jennifer Lawrence.

Pick to win: Jennifer Lawrence

Directing

The Oscar nominations for best director were the most controversial as they lacked two heavy favorites, Ben Affleck (Argo) and Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty).  That makes it hard to predict a winner or even a favorite, as Affleck won a Golden Globe for directing Argo and only two of the directors nominated for the Golden Globes were also nominated for an Oscar. The nominees for directing are: Michael Haneke (Amour), Behn Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild), Ang Lee (Life of Pi), Steven Spielberg (Lincoln), and David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook).

Spielberg or Lee would have to be considered the frontrunners in the group as Spielberg is a Hollywood heavyweight and Lee directed a movie that most considered impossible to produce.

Pick to win: Steven Spielberg

The 85th Oscars will air Feb. 24 on ABC.

For a full list of nominees, go to: http://oscar.go.com/nominees.