The 86th annual Academy Awards will be broadcasted live on ABC tonight and hosted by Ellen DeGeneres, DeGeneres’ second time hosting the Awards. The very last of popular award shows for the year, the Academy Awards are considered to be one of the highest honors a person in film can achieve. The following predictions were calculated based on personal preference, past Academy Award history, how each film/performer did at other award shows, and Las Vegas odds.

Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave

Scoring a 96% on Rotten Tomatoes with over 240 positive reviews, 12 Years a Slave is truly one of the best films of the year. The film has already won Best Film at the British Academy Film Awards, the Best Theatrical Motion Picture at the Producers Guild for America and Golden Globe for Best Picture. 12 Years a Slave touches on heavy topics, which the Academy likes to see, and has wonderful performances from the entire cast. American Hustle and Gravity are really the only competition for this film.

Best Director: Alfonso Cuarón

The director of my personal favorite Harry Potter film (Prisoner of Azkaban) has made his masterpiece. With Gravity scoring a 97% on Rotten Tomatoes with nearly 300 positive reviews and winning the Golden Globe and British Academy Film Award for Best Director, Alfonso Cuarón is the heavy favorite for the Oscar in this category.

Best Actor: Matthew McConaughey

Scoring his first ever Academy Award nomination, Matthew McConaughey delivered a truly incredible performance as Ron Woodroof in the film Dallas Buyers Club. Since 1994, the Screen Actors Guild has given out the award for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role nineteen times. Fifteen of those winners have gone on to win the Academy Award for Best Actor. The winner of this years’ award at the Screen Actors Guild was Matthew McConaughey. He’s also won the Golden Globe for Best Actor in the Drama category, but be cautious of Leonardo DiCaprio stealing the Oscar from McConaughey as Jordan Belfort in The Wolf of Wall Street.

Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto

Perhaps an even heavier favorite than his co-star Matthew McConaughey, Jared Leto, frontman of the band Thirty Seconds to Mars, made a historic return to the big screen after five years since his last film. Portraying the transgender woman, Rayon, in the film Dallas Buyers Club, Leto did a truly incredible job and complimented the film tremendously. Having already won the Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild award, Leto is all but a lock.

Best Actress: Cate Blanchett

In her sixth Academy Award nomination, Cate Blanchett delivered one of the best performances of the year in her role as Jasmine Francis in Blue Jasmine. While Blue Jasmine may not be considered one of Woody Allen’s greatest films, Blanchett’s performance was exceptional. She’s already won one Academy Award, the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Drama and the Screen Actors Guild Award for Best Actress. In this category there isn’t much competition besides Amy Adams. Blanchett should lock this one up as well.

Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong’o

Jennifer Lawrence was a great addition to the movie American Hustle with her performance as Rosalyn Rosenfeld. She stole the show in a movie with a very talented cast and I would love nothing more than for her to win her second Oscar in a row. However, one performance can’t go discounted. In her first ever full-length film, Lupita Nyong’o in 12 Years a Slave made a worthy performance. Nyong’o won a similar award from the Screen Actors’ Guild but Lawrence won the Golden Globe. I’m going to have to give Nyong’o the award here as it will probably be her only chance at the award and Jennifer Lawrence will be sure to get nominated in the future. Hopefully, the Academy can recognize that and commend Nyong’o’s performance.

Best Original Screenplay: American Hustle

The British Academy of Film and the Arts awarded American Hustle with the Best Original Screenplay and the Golden Globes awarded Her with the Best Screenplay. Welcome to, what I believe to be, the only major Academy Award that can be considered a true toss-up. Due to the edginess of Her and the fact that American Hustle will probably miss out on winning Best Picture to 12 Years a Slave and other awards to films like Gravity, I’m going to have to give the slight edge to American Hustle here. Watch out for Her, as it just may win it.

Best Adapted Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave

12 Years a Slave should really win this one, due mostly to a lack of realistic competition. 12 Years a Slave will win not only for the beautiful dialogue that encapsulates the movie, but the material makes this screenplay very worthy of an Oscar.

Best Animated Feature: Frozen

It’s really a shame that animated films don’t get recognized in the Best Picture category, because Frozen would be one of the ten possible nominees. The PIXAR film is usually the favorite, but Monster’s University did not even get a nomination. Frozen might be one of the best princess movies ever made by Disney, and the soundtrack was truly incredible. It would be heartbreaking if anything else won.

Foreign Language Film: The Great Beauty

Sound Editing: Gravity

Visual Effects: Gravity

Film Editing: American Hustle

Short Film, Animated: Feral

Short Film, Live Action: The Voorman Problem

Documentary Short Subject: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life

Original Score: Gravity

Original Song: Let It Go

Production Design: The Great Gatsby

Cinematography: Gravity

Costume Design: The Great Gatsby

Makeup and Hairstyling: The Dallas Buyers Club

Documentary Feature: 20 Feet From Stardom

Sound Mixing: Gravity

The rest of the awards are based purely off of Las Vegas odds and what won a Golden Globe. As you can see, Gravity will be the big winner this Sunday night. You’ll hear it being called out so much, you’ll think you’re in a physics classroom.